China Research

A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China – from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.

CO2 pollution in emerging countries

November 20, 2025

Currently, the climate conference of the UN is taking place in Brazil, unfortunately with limited involvement of several leading advanced countries. Particularly President Donald Trump has been stepping beside or even behind. Still, China, the U.S. and India are the main global CO2 polluters. Without strong commitment from these three countries, decisive global progress in the fight for a better environment cannot be achieved. However, this should mean all the same that better environmental conditions should be created in all emerging markets.

Many emerging countries among the top 30 polluters

According to global statistics, one still can find China clearly in the global lead of CO2 pollution in percent before the United States, India, Russia, Japan and Iran. Despite quite some progress in recent years, China’s CO2 pollution remains almost three times higher than the correspondent number for the United States and more than four times higher than India’s ratio (see https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/co2-emissions-by-country).

CO2 pollution by country, global share in % in 2023  (and share of pollution per capita)

 1      China                    33.98           (9.2)

 2       U.S.                       12.00           (13.8)

 3       India                        7.57           (2.1)

 4      Russia                     5.30            (14.4)

 5      Japan                       2.42            (7.5)

 6      Iran                           2               (9.1)

 7      Indonesia              1.73             (2.4)

 8      Saudi Arabia        1.60             (17.1)

 9      Germany               1.49            (7.1)

10     Korea                      1.47           (11.0)

11     Canada

12     Mexico 

13     Brazil

14     Turkey

15     South Africa

16     Vietnam 

21     Malaysia

24     Thailand

25     Egypt

26     Kazakhstan

27     UAE

28     Pakistan

29     Iraq

30     Argentina  

When it comes to CO2 pollution per capita, the picture looks more favorable for China compared to the U.S. I could hear this as a strongly positive argument on many occasions when I still visited China very frequently. However, my conclusion was from the very beginning that pollution per capita had to be regarded as a bumpy measurement since pollution never has national borders. I could hear this point of view with obviously strong passion during my visits on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa which had been – and still is – particularly affected by Chinese pollution.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University

Advanced countries lose and emerging markets gain export momentum

October 29, 2025

Below, we examine the WTO statistics on the main exporting nations. Many advanced countries had quite bleak performances in 2024 due to weak global demand. Quite a number of emerging markets on the other hand achieved more favorable developments. The magnitude of trade damage caused by President Trump’s protectionism starting in 2025 remains to be seen.

China was still the largest exporting nation in the world after a 6-percent increase in current prices last year, giving the Middle Kingdom a global export share of almost 15 percent. This was partly made possible as a result of further Chinese progress in the emerging world, particularly in Africa and South America. China counts for roughly 7 percent of total global goods exports. For 2025, China is predicted to achieve record shipments in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

India remains lagging behind, Vietnam is catching up

Despite the enormous size of the country, India still has not advanced further than to number 18 of the globe’s leading exporting nations. This is sometimes regarded as disappointing. However, one should remember that India for a long time only had very limited foreign competition at home and for this reason insufficient conditions for exporting to the rest of the world on a broader scale of products. India as a country is still catching up also when it comes to exports and product diversification.

By the way, only a few emerging markets are among the top 20 exporting nations – but they dominate in the third group from number 21 to 30. Particularly in the medium and longer run, they will most probably improve their positions further.

In detail, the list of the 30 leading exporters of goods in 2024 looked as follows (in billion USD, in brackets all changes in percent and in current prices in, source WTO):

1    China 3577 (+6)   

2    U.S. 2065 (+2)

3    Germany 1682 (-1)

4    Netherlands 921 (-2)

5    Japan 707 (-1)

6    South Korea 684 (+8)

7    Italy 674 (0) 

8.   Hong Kong 64z6 (+12)

9     France 639 (+11)

10   Mexico 617 (+4)

11   UAE 604 (+6)

12   Canada 569 (0)

13    Belgium 536 (-6)

14    UK 513 (-2)

15    Singapore 506 (+6)

16    Taiwan 474 (+10)

17    Switzerland 447 (+6)

18    India 443 (+3)

19    Russia 433 (+2)

20    Spain 424 (0)

21    Vietnam 405 (+14)

22    Poland 380 (0)

23    Australia 341 (-8)

24    Brazil 337 (-1)

26    Malaysia 330 (+6)

26    Saudi Arabia 305 (-5)

27    Thailand 301 (+5)

2    Indonesia 265 (+2) 

29   Czech Republik 263 (+3)

30   Turkey 262 (+2)

Source: WTO.org

Asia in the lead regarding suppliers from emerging countries

Interestingly, Asian emerging countries had the most successful export performance in 2024 (but again, without knowing how much they are now affected by Trump’s ongoing protectionism). This position can be expected to remain in place in the foreseeable future. It also should be mentioned that particularly Vietnam benefited more recently from shifting global supply chains.

Surprisingly, Russia remained also in 2024 quite a successful exporting nation due to oil and gas exports to China, India and other countries still dealing substantially with Russia.

Conclusion: Trade statistics from the WTO remain illuminating, especially on the corporate level – for both purchasing, sales and production managers.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University

Publication of article on China by Hubert Fromlet in Economic & Financial Review by the EEFC at the University of London

October 9, 2025

Abstract: This study traces the transformation of China over the years. It examines the country’s high debt position which is in all sectors including central government, local governments, corporates and private households which according to the IMF totals 80 percent of GDP. Local debt conditions continue to deteriorate for different reasons – particularly as a consequence of the ongoing real estate crisis but also due to the weakening economic growth potential. The author also highlights the role of BRICS II as an organisation ready for increasing Chinese influence. The study concludes China’s real estate crisis may be much more serious than usually understood by most Western analysts.

Read the full article here.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University