LNU’s China Panel Survey No 15 – December 2012:

10:13 by Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar

“Our “overheating indicator” for China rises to 6.5 – slightly improved outlook for 2013 and 2014“

¤ Our so-called overheating indicator for China – derived from a survey with China specialists all over the globe – gained some temperature in December compared to May 2012 (6.5; May:2012: 4.9; 1-10; 10=extremely overheated). The current GDP-growth temperature does not indicate any overheating in the general economy.

¤ GDP forecasts for China (average, percent) 2012: 7.3 2013: 7.8 2014: 8.0
For both 2013 and 2014, GDP predictions are characterized by downward biases – though on a somewhat more encouraging trend. I tend to be slightly more optimistic.

¤ One of the panel’s assumptions for Chinese growth forecasts is that around two thirds of our panel members count on a gradual but relatively modest recovery in 2013/2014 in the OECD area as a whole. Approximately, one third believes in a continued weak and disappointing performance – on average – of the entire OECD block. China’s growth sensitivity that is related to the European crisis is considered to be at 5.6 (scale 1-10; 1=no sensitivity at all) which is not negligible.

¤ Three fourths of the panelists predict that the Chinese currency renminbi (RMB) will appreciate slightly during 2013 (by 1-5 percent). All the other remaining panelists assume the RMB to remain more or less stable.

¤ 100 percent of the panelists think that there is still a dangerous price bubble on the real estate market. When it comes to the Chinese stock market, however, our China experts seem to be markedly less concerned about potential bubble risks.

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Hubert Fromlet
Professor of International Economics
Editorial board

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