China Research

A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China – from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.

Avoid too much import of skilled human capital from poor countries!

February 6, 2024

Labor markets in less developed countries are frequently analyzed from  different angles. Researchers put their emphasis often on institutional and physical working conditions, gender issues, child labor, (minimum) wages and wage disparities, social protection of workers, income distribution,  energy and environment, workers’ health, ethics, labor market laws and rules (plus their enforcement and application), labor productivity, etc.

There exists also quite some literature about immigrant workers coming from the emerging world to Western countries. One special aspect, however, seems to be neglected by most analysts with nexus to migration issues: the increasing efforts by foreign (Western) politicians to attract skilled workers to their home countries.

The complicated issue of skilled worker immigration

We all know that the world has become tougher in recent years with extensive movements on global labor markets for various reasons – due to poverty, covid, dictatorship, persecution, and wars. All these developments are certainly disliked in advanced democratic countries – but many times politicians and voters want to see a visible downsizing of the unskilled labor force inflow from poor countries. Instead, they prefer a growing inflow of skilled workers from particularly Asia and Africa.

Whatever one may think about this less humanitarian positioning, there is at least some logic in it. First, Western institutions cannot cope with necessary immigration administration anymore. Second, politicians are often no longer capable to handle the protests from the extreme right. Third, the strong demographic changes with shrinking population in mostly mature countries – but also, for example, in China and Russia – has already led to serious shortages of skilled experts within the EU, particularly in Germany (“Fachkräftemangel”).

Regarding Europe, we can at least base a lot of labor knowledge on relatively reliable statistics. This is, however, mostly not the case when it comes to statistical developments on labor markets in emerging or really poor countries.

Not even China and India provide global analysts with sufficient labor market information. Sure, both countries have an enormous size which by definition makes the production of statistics very difficult. China, for example, measures therefore only urban unemployment. It has recently even stopped to announce the embarrassingly high youth unemployment. On the other hand one can read, for example, in newspapers and journals about the high unemployment of young Indian academics (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/study-finds-42-gradsu-25-unemployed-upgradcampus-1c/).

Ethical shortcomings

Looking at labor market conditions in many economically lagging countries, I cannot find it very ethical that heads of governments and ministers from EU-countries  and other advanced countries increasingly travel around in Africa, Asia and Latin America just to attract specialized labor force to their own advanced countries (or to find more suppliers of commodities).

This active way of marketing should be considered as in-acceptable. Unnecessary “brain drain” from emerging countries would be the consequence, hindering progress there both in the society and the economy.

As regards countries and companies in our part of the world, sales to emerging countries could or would develop less favorably because of the negative “brain drain”-effects on GDP than in a world without such a kind of human capital loss.

For this reason, Western governments should rather give skills to emerging countries than take too much of their precious human capital accumulation.

Hubert Fromlet Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

The Future Global Development: Hope and Concerns

December 6, 2023

Valedictory Address at the IIF International Research Conference & Award Summit (IIF-IRCAS), Delhi / India, December 2, 2023 by Prof. Hubert Fromlet, Linnaeus University/Sweden

Summary

After many years of fruitful relations with the Indian Institute of Finance (IIF), it is real honor and pleasure for me to have another speech for teachers and students at the very successful academic institution of the IIF. I am speaking also in honor of the late professor J.D. Agarwal, the founder of the IIF.

In many respects, the world has entered a period of disorder. We are confronted with wars, radicalism, political turmoil, protectionism, poverty, suffering refugees, egoism, political extremism and populism, lagging and economically weak and unstable countries – and all this simultaneously. But I also feel happy about India’s progress in the past few decades – and wish  this important catching-up country all the best for the future.

Below, I will sum up six factors of hope and ten factors of concerns (without ranking) that currently occupy my reflections a lot. Obviously, it is easier these days to put together the factors of concerns – but hope and (future) opportunities should not be neglected either. This latter conclusion is important for both financial markets and the corporate sector. We hereby touch briefly on behavioral finance and behavioral economics. Positive or encouraging psychological contributions may play an important role in bad times to develop turning points in the right direction; of course based on fairly realistic expectations.

Factors of concern

¤ The war in the Ukraine.
The Russian war in the Ukraine still goes on as a psychological (human) and financial burden, mainly for the U.S. and Europe.

¤ China’s economic and financial development.
China’s economy and the financial development remains a conundrum that creates uncertainty and concerns because of lagging transparency.

¤ China’s political development.
President Xi Jinping’s autocratic leadership style does not provide China with good predictability – neither when it comes to the economy nor to politics (e.g. vis à vis the U.S., Taiwan)

¤ The U.S. after the next presidential election.
The unpredictable Donald Trump as a possible new president scares me a lot.

¤ The political development of the EU.
The EU will have elections in its member countries in 2024 – with good chances for the extreme right as a big concern for EU unity.

¤ The economic development and reforms in the EU.
Further nationalism in the EU would impede reforms and growth.

¤ Insufficient reforms in emerging markets.
Most emerging countries still need a lot of reforms. An open question may be to what extent China’s growing political influence in many emerging countries impact on market reforms.

¤ Energy and water shortage in rich and less favored countries.
Global water shortage worries me a lot – but also uncertain and uneven global energy supply.

¤ Further increasing protectionism.
Here we have a risk of further reduced global trade expansion and economic growth. 

¤ Last but not least: turmoil on global financial markets.
Negative surprises on global financial markets may “always” be on the cards. As an obvious potential risk, I may particularly mention all the (hidden) financial imbalances in China but also potentially bursting financial bubbles elsewhere.

Factors of hope

¤ Politics – bad political leaders may be replaced sooner or later.
At least in working democracies, one may hope that bad political leaders some day will be replaced by more competent successors.

¤ Increasing global insight of climate improvement needs.
This is a factor where improvement is visible (but still too little).

¤ Global insight that education is a growth-driving need.
There is a growing insight around the world that the creation of new human capital is a main factor for stronger potential growth.

¤ Emerging markets receive growing political attention.
Here, we can currently watch an important development that does not look perfect but will gradually improve self-confidence of many emerging countries, particularly in the so-called South.

¤ Gender equality is improving globally (but still too slowly).
Progress happens in many countries. More still can be done. Nice to see that we in 2023 got another female Nobel Prize Winner with Claudia Goldin.

¤ AI means a lot of hope – but also unpredictable risks.
AI is currently expanding very quickly – creating a lot of new opportunities, particularly in medical research and diagnosis. However, AI risks should not be neglected one single day.

Altogether, 2024 will be an extremely important political year with lots of economic implications and consequences.

 

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

 

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Was the current China crisis predictable?

October 13, 2023

Presentation by Hubert Fromlet, Linnaeus University (Linnéuniversitetet), at the Baltic Sea Region/Emerging Markets and China Seminar 2023 in Kalmar


The Chinese economy develops currently very disappointingly. Market expectations from earlier this year were obviously not met – and certainly not positive expectations from earlier years either.

The following question remains interesting: Was the current economic crisis predictable? The answer should be – “yes indeed”.

Too little profound analysis in time

China became the number 1 exporting nation in 2009 and the number 1 total GDP nation in 2016 (in PPP terms). Thus, there were many years to increase knowledge about China. However, foreign (Western) analytical curiosity about the Chinese economic system remained by far too limited ever since the beginning of China’s era as an economic superpower. In many cases, final enlightenment happened as late as in 2022 during the Chinese covid-19 disaster or only this year caused by the serious real estate crisis.

Since the millennium change, I have singled out four kinds of foreign China analysts. They are

¤ specialized researchers at universities and institutes with focus on China,

¤ full-time and part-time China journalists at home or with location in China,

¤ politicians and ambassadors with long-time experience from China,

¤ analysts on global financial markets and forecasters without special analytical skills and focus on China.

Considering these four groups, it seems to be clear that there has been a number of experts indeed well understanding the forthcoming problems in the Chinese economy – but not so many people could be counted. This implies that financial markets – generally expressed – during many years have been standing for the lion share of the foreign interpretation of the Chinese economy; unfortunately, naively based on (wrong) Chinese statistics and the neglect of poor transparency. However, a positive change may be started in the foreseeable future – hopefully giving us conditions for better China analysis also on a global scale.

The visible and neglected warnings signals

One of the main difficulties for economists or other risk managers is the question about the timing of possibly bursting (financial) bubbles or the misery of other serious accidents. This is mostly impossible since aggravating developments usually happen “step by step”. However, “step by step” or gradually should not make managers to forget about a quite early stressed problem or risk. Let’s now turn to some recognizable early warning signals (which may have been given as much as 15-20 years ago):

Warning signals for China’s economy in the past decade   

About bad transparency:

Bernanke/Olson, 2016, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/chinas-transparency-challenges/

Fromlet, 2013, https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/debt-management/2254223/bank-of-finland-highlights-astonishing-lack-of-information-on-chinese-government-debt

Comment: Persistent bad transparency impacts negatively on potential growth.

About poor statistical standards

Ravallion/Jalan, 1999, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.89.2.301

Fromlet, 2013, see above

Comment: Statistical shortcomings could/can be found when it comes, for example, to GDP, (youth) unemployment, inflation, government debt and particularly local debt, housing market, bad loans of the banks, subsidies, government support of state-owned companies etc. These shortcomings make economic policy too difficult.

About previous and the current real estate crises

Lu Gao (ADB), 2010, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28408/economics-wp198.pdf

Fromlet, 2014, https://publications.bof.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/44826/bpb1514[1].pdf?sequence=1

Comment: Developments on Chinese housing and commercial real estate markets should permanently be watched very closely since these two sectors mean so much to the whole economy.

About banks and financial markets

Poon/Wu/Ahmad, 2023, https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/chinese-banks-enter-2023-in-worse-shape-than-global-peers-more-risks-ahead-73464612#:~:text=Collateral%20risk&text=Credit%20losses%20for%20Chinese%20banks,report%20from%20S%26P%20Global%20Ratings.

Fromlet, 2001, https://gmdconsulting.eu/nykerk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Behavioral-Finance-_-theory-and-application.pdf

Comment: Financial risks will remain a top issue for China analysis in the foreseeable future – also in a psychological respect.

About political developments

McBride/Chatzky, 2019, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/made-china-2025-threat-global-trade

Fromlet, 2017 (October 26), https://blogg.lnu.se/china-research/?cat=13398&paged=34

Comment: Politics and the economy belong together, particularly in a country like China.

 

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

 

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