China Research

A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China – from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.

New Global Conditions for Emerging Market Analysis*

May 13, 2026

FINANCE INDIA © Indian Institute of Finance Vol. XL No. 1, March 2026 Pages—59—66

By HUBERT FROMLET, Linnaeus University / Sweden

Abstract

The world is changing and has always been. The same can be said about emerging markets and the analysis of their market reforms which were particularly visible in many former planned European economies. At the same time, herd behaviour is not easy to foresee under global conditions where psychology will play an increasingly important role also for the economic development.

2014 onwards, the analysis of emerging markets got a new dimension. Covid 19 meant a new puzzling analytical conundrum during a few years. Now, it seems to be a safe forecast that politics will remain very important for the future analysis of emerging markets – probably increasingly important in a longer perspective. In this context, the analysis of China’s and Russia’s ambitions in the emerging world could become particularly interesting (without discussing India’s strong potential in this specific paper). The activities of the U.S. in emerging countries certainly not to forget! The future positioning of the EU in emerging countries seems to be more uncertain.

Altogether, geopolitical ambitions of the three global superpower countries will most probably gain further momentum in the analysis of emerging markets.

*The Online access to the full paper is through Elsevier or EBSCO which may be possible by library agreements of certain universities.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University

Different numbers on Chinese growth

April 28, 2026

Through many years, I have questioned the quality of Chinese official statistics. Sometimes, one can hear or read about statistical improvements. This may be partly the case – but who knows? Doubts are still in place, underlined by the competent research of BOFIT which is linked to the Finnish central bank, Suomen Pankki.

Worrisome domestic and global economic environment

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Beijing, Chinese GDP grew by 5 percent in Q1 of 2026 compared to Q1 last year. This is actually on the upper end of the growth objective of 4.5-5 percent for 2026 as a whole, despite all domestic and international distortions and wars. However, transparency of this development remains limited.

5 percent of economic growth in Q1 has been managed officially despite all the worrisome developments at home and internationally. GDP-growth rates remain unbelievably stable in China. Domestically, China is facing the the ageing population, the imbalanced property sector, major debt problems locally, and uncertain consumers – major challenges alongside all the technological achievements. On the other hand, official statistics also showed that investments and exports performed quite well in the beginning of 2026.

For example, exports grew by 20 percent to ASEAN countries (Q1 in value terms), by 32 percent to Africa and by 9 percent to Latin America. However, exports to the U.S. continued to decrease (-16 percent). 

Anyway, I still wonder for how long time or whether Chinese policy makers can continue to manage their dual economy simultaneously, the lagging and the leading one. An answer still cannot be given. 

The alternative calculation of BOFIT

Finnish research institute BOFIT (The Bank of Finland Research Institute for Emerging Economies, https://www.bofit.fi/en ) in Helsinki is well-known for its research on emerging economies, nowadays particularly on China, Russia and also the Ukraine. BOFIT publishes regularly important statistical indicators on these countries (https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/statistics/) – but also an alternative China forecast on its own which contrary to NBS gave a slight slowdown in Q1 (https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/statistics/alternativeindicatorsofchinaseconomicgrowth/). 

Nota bene: BOFIT’s next forecast on China will be published on May 5.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University

China sees only modest growth in 2026

March 6, 2026

China’s political leadership continues to reduce its previously high growth expectations. This became clear when Prime Minister Li Qiang announced the official GDP-growth objective during the opening of the annual National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 5. The envisaged growth range for 2026 – now settled at 4.5-5 percent – means some downsizing compared to the corresponding plans one year ago (then around 5 percent for 2025). 4.5 percent is – by the way – exactly the GDP-growth number that was noted last year in Q4 – but 0.3 lower than in Q3. It can be added that recent statistics continue to show disappointing statistics for retail sales and real estate markets.

Lowest expectations since 1991

Decreasing growth expectations in China cannot be regarded as a new growth phenomenon but have been going on already for a number of years (https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual). Sure, the Chinese prime minister talked at the NPC about complex conditions domestically and abroad when explaining the (slightly) weakening growth goals. On the other hand, there has been a downward trend of Chinese GDP growth already for quite some years and not only recently.

This conclusion leads to the interesting question whether Chinese economic growth de facto even could be lower than officially reported. In the past, there have been frequent doubts about such an interpretation of poor statistical standards, particularly when growth rates seemed to be disappointing – but also the other way around in boom years when GDP growth often was estimated as higher in reality than officially announced (https://blogg.lnu.se/china-research/?p=1729; https://blogg.lnu.se/china-research/?p=3479;https://publications.bof.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/44981/172270.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y).

Of course, we still do not know enough about China’s real growth performance more recently. However, historical experience in this specific growth aspect is not very encouraging in an environment of lagging transparency.

Growth concerns inside China create growth concerns outside China

Altogether, there is good reason to believe that China remains confronted with obvious  growth problems which only cautiously is admitted by China’s political leadership (https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202603/05/WS69a8f737a310d6866eb3bdfd.html ). Not even different growth stimuli more lately could give strived growth effects, at least not according to my own interpretation,

Consequently, still stronger Chinese export efforts to non-protectionist countries cannot be ruled out in the forthcoming quarters and beyond. Such moves could be important to explain to the Chinese people that their political leadership still has tools to manage the economy successfully. This psychological aspect should not be neglected!

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University