China Research

A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China – from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.

The Nobel Prize in economics from an Indian perspective

January 19, 2023

 

Summary from a speech by Hubert Fromlet, Linnaeus University/Sweden on January 8, 2023, at the “International Research Conference” arranged by the Indian Institute of Finance (IIF)            

Ever since its start 55 years ago, 95 economic researchers have been awarded the so-called Nobel Prize1) which is broadly considered as the most prestigious recognition for economic research. Unfortunately, only two female scientists made it so far: American sociologist Elinor Ostrom in 2009 and French-American experimental poverty researcher Esther Duflo in 2019. More female candidates could be found which I various times elaborated on in the Swedish and global press, Indian press included 2).

Presumably, the long-term perspective looks better because of the favorable outlook for more extended female research. This probable global way forward – in reality favored by more and more female academic students and graduates – may also serve as a strategic encouragement for Indian economic and financial research.

Since management research very rarely has been awarded so far and management researchers are not ruled out formally from the Nobel Prize in Economics, one may also imagine that fundamentally important and sustainable management research gradually could move closer to the inner circle of Nobel Prize candidates. If so, also more Indian economists may show up on the candidate lists at some point.

Interesting names from India

For being an emerging country, Indian economists were so far quite well visible in a Nobel-Prize context (with the past winners Amartya Sen in 1998 and more recently Abhijit Banerjee in 2019) – even if more could have happened. Jagdish Bhagwati should have been a Prize Winner already many years ago, micro economist Avinash Dixit at least in the past ten years. A strong Indian name for a future Nobel Award should be in my view behavioral and financial scientist Sendhil Mullainathan (Chicago).

It would be positive if economists in the visibly catching-up country of India  strongly could be provided with conditions that can develop ambitions and research in line with India’s obvious individual potential – also for eventually knocking more frequently on the door of a future Nobel Prize in Economics.

References

 

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

 

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In memoriam: Professor (Dr) J.D. Agarwal

January 10, 2023

Founder of the Indian Institute of Finance (IIF), Chairman and Director of the IIF, chief editor, etc.

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It would take a lot of pages and time to sum up all the efforts, achievements, research results, high honors and appointments Professor (Dr) J.D. Agarwal has received during his successful life as a researcher. He saw many forthcoming problems on financial markets at an early stage, e.g. money laundering, real estate bubbles, liberalization of capital flows and the impact on bank systems – with focus on crisis situations. Energy and climate change in a financial context were also part of Professor J.D. Agarwal’s research.

Altogether, professor Agarwal’s impressing professional record clearly indicates his direct important role for the Indian society when advising Indian governments and other influential public decision-makers. The indirect important impact of Professor J.D. Agarwal’s work is also obvious. He deserves a lot of recognition for having led many of his well-educated financial students so beneficially to serve the society.

Fortunately, I had the great privilege of having met Professor J.D. Agarwal several times in Delhi. It was always very stimulating to meet and listen to such an intellectual, skilled and at the same time humble colleague. His generous attitudes also included enormous hospitality whenever I came to India, Delhi and the IIF.

J.D. Agarwal’s close family members – some of them I had the pleasure to meet as well, even in Sweden – will certainly work hard and successfully to cultivate and further develop the heritage of Professor J.D. Agarwal’s great lifetime achievements.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

 

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China and India – today and tomorrow

October 17, 2022

Presentation by Hubert Fromlet at the LNU conference “Baltic Sea Region and Emerging Market / China Day” in Kalmar, October 17, 2022

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Summary

China and India are the two largest countries in the world when it comes to population. Both countries currently have the same size in population, around 1.4 billion people. China still has a larger total GDP but India may be currently catching up somewhat. Both countries have common problems but also diverging challenges. Altogether, none of these two giant countries is able these days to function as a main driver of the global economy in the way China did after the eruption of the global financial and economic crisis (“subprime crisis”) almost 15 years ago when China for a number of years was standing for more than one third of global GDP growth.

Nationalism is still increasing

Both China and India have moved to more nationalism in the past years. For China, this fact is really visible during the currently ongoing 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC; see Fromlet from September 2, https://blogg.lnu.se/china-research/).This convention will confirm the clearly strengthened power of CPC Chairman and President of China, Xi Jinping, with a lot of nationalist hymns and celebrations (https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202210/16/WS634bb02aa310fd2b29e7cca1_3.html) – certainly more than India ever will be inclined to show domestically even if India’s Prime Minister Modi must be regarded as a convinced nationalist as well. But India is indeed interested in workable broad international relations all the same – also despite the presumable neutrality vis-à-vis Russia in the war against the Ukraine.

China on the other hand, seems to be more recognizable on Russia’s side during the ongoing war but will possibly look again at some point – as the main benefiter of globalization so far – for a better future image over the whole globe. In the forthcoming years, however, this cannot happen without a strategy change of the almighty CPC chairman and President of the People’s Republic of China.

At the same time, certain signs are showing that good or at least acceptable relations to the U.S. remain an important part of China’s foreign strategy. Sure, India’s democratic principles unite the U.S. and India more than it is the case between the U.S. and China. However, I found it quite interesting that an important Chinese voice very recently stressed the importance of Chinese-American relations (https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202210/15/WS634a95eda310fd2b29e7ca98.html) – whatever this may mean.

Which country will be the winner in the longer run?

Some economic signals indicate that India may have escaped somewhat less damaged from the covid19-turmoil than China did with its rigid lockdown strategy which still is in place. Officially, the trend since the eruption of covid-19 pandemic  does not diverge substantially (GDP from Q4 in 2019 to Q2 in 2022: China: +8,8 %, India: +3.6 %, https://www.oecd.org/sdd/na/g20-gdp-growth-Q2-2022.pdf). But in Q2 this year, the Chinese drop of GDP was sharper than the Indian (-2.6 % compared to the previous quarter, for India this number was -1,4 %).

Altogether, one may conclude that no major difference between China and India can be found in their growth pattern from winter 2019 to summer 2022. But there is a catch: The quality of Chinese (GDP) statistics tends to be lower than in India.

Thus, the answer to the question about the economic winner in the long run remains uncertain. Considering all the structural problems in China (e.g. for institutions and their failures concerning transparency, corruption, supervision, bureaucracy, local government debt, corporate debt, non-competitive state-owned enterprises, etc.), one cannot predict that China still will have the lead 10-20 years from now. India suffers from similar challenges plus slow federal decision processes but is enjoying more Western sympathy points because of its democratic system.

 

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

 

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