China Research

In a few days, the United Nations’ Climate Change Conference is scheduled to start. Particularly three developments are encouraging since the failure in Copenhagen six years ago. First, there seems to be more global co-operation on this important issue. Second, this improved global understanding seems to include jointly China and the U.S. Third, China has discovered the limits of very rapid economic growth, either voluntarily or involuntarily by enormous air and water destruction in the world’s largest country (by population). The (quite) new Chinese popular awareness of the environment is certainly encouraging and cannot be neglected by politicians anymore.

In Hong Kong’s South Chinese Morning Post, I could read in the beginning of this month about horrible pollution problems in northeastern China with noted record pollution. Many other concrete examples of this kind certainly exist as well. Altogether, China as the number one global CO₂ producer has certainly a special responsibility to make the fight against global pollution more effective (without forgetting India). Improved co-operation with the U.S. on this issue would most certainly be beneficial for both China itself and the whole globe.

Before, China – even as the number one global CO₂ polluter – gave the U.S. the main responsibility for CO₂ pollution and global warming, explained by the lower population in the U.S. or its highest pollution per capita. Since pollution really has become a global phenomenon, such a distinction does not make sense anymore. This is why the whole world is waiting for good Sino-American co-operation on all environmental issues.

In this context, it should be singled out that carbon energy production – and not car pollution – widely is regarded is regarded as the most terrifying threat to a better environment in China (without neglecting car pollution). China has to act strongly in both of these two decisive fields, by domestic developments and by co-operation and business with western firms.

Consequently, there still exist many commercial opportunities for many western firms – Swedish companies included – with the big country of China, despite weakening growth prospects compared to the past decade.

However, there still is a catch. Sure, China seems to be committed to its environmental goals, for example peaking CO₂ pollution by the year 2030. But on which GDP and/or industrial production levels will this peak be reached? So far, I haven’t observed any numerical details on this important detail. At least I would like to see, two or three growth scenarios and their assumed effects on the environment.

Unless more measurable changes are planned, my doubts about major future effectiveness of environmental improvements will stay in place. I do hope they will come. Shouldn’t the environment be a good area for improved Chinese transparency?

Hubert Fromlet
Senior Professor of International Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

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