“Stable and satisfactory numbers from China – LNU’s “Temperature Indicator at 6.0“

12:30 by Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar


In the second half of April, Linnaeus University prepared its traditional spring survey on the business climate and economic conditions in China, both with shorter and longer time perspectives. The (independent) responding China experts – around 15 of them – come from Asia, the U.S. and Europa – thanks a lot!

“LNU’s China Panel remains cautiously confident on China – despite the obvious risks”

¤  LNU’s “Temperature Indicator” for GDP growth in China remained stable at 6.0 in April compared to 6.1 in December 2017 (10 means “very hot” on the scale) – still satisfactory despite the small decrease.

¤  The panel expects Chinese GDP growth to come in at 6.5 percent in 2018 as a whole – 0.3 higher than predicted last December and at – somewhat slower – 6,2 percent in q4 2018. For 2019, our forecasters see Chinese GDP grow with 6.2 percent as well. This latter number – if achieved in reality – would certainly be acceptable inside and outside China.

¤   More than half of the forecasters (54 percent) see rather a downward bias in their own GDP prediction than an upward bias – and around one third no bias at all.

¤  There are divided views on the course of the currency RMB in 2018 but most experts expect a slight depreciation (1-5 percent) of the RMB against the  U.S. dollar in 2018.

¤   GDP growth on average until 2023 is seen at 5.6 percent.

Read the full article here, ChinaPanelSurvey May 2018


Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board


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