China Research

We are living in a rapidly working and changing (economic) world. This development also leads many times to less profound analysis and reading. Conditions have been – and are – changing both on the analytical demand and supply side. More people express their opinions – but decreasingly based on profound skills. And less people want to spend much of their limited time on deep intellectual penetration of different special areas. The demand for good, deep and comprehensive general knowledge seems to be declining.

I do not motivate these brief conclusions by the latest results from economic and social research. Instead, I apply many years of my own experience from industry, financial markets and academia – and also proven and undisputed results from (academic) research.

What really worries me is the obvious fact that so many articles and reports on China obviously are reflecting semi-knowledge. Good understanding of Chinese politics and economic conditions or developments is certainly not an issue one can deal with briefly or occasionally – which unfortunately often seems to be the case. Analysis of China may be knowingly or unconsciously. In my view, the latter alternative is dominating.

Here we come to Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller. In his book “Irrational Exuberance” (p 142), Shiller discusses a phenomenon called “overconfidence” which he defines by writing “people think they know more than do. They like to express opinions on matters they know little about, and they often act on these opinions …”

In other words: semi-knowledge exists indeed and can become very risky. Ambitious and future-oriented countries should not become dependent on strived special skills in IT and AI – but should also do a lot for improvements of general knowledge. I believe that the Chinese have understood this dualism better than many political and corporate leaders in the West. At least I still cannot find good evidence that necessary educational efforts for improving general knowledge are really taking place on a broad scale in our part of the world. It may be a structural problem in times of speed, electronic games and modified spare time with – probably – less interest in reading. Updated research on this area would be very interesting.

Conclusion:

A good understanding of China assumes deep and regular studies of this – by its enormous size – continental country. Overconfidence is always risky – but particularly when it comes to China.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
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