China Research

China’s GDP grew on average by 5 percent in 2024 which is in line with planned GDP growth if we express it this way. And it does not appear as a surprise that the final quarter of 2024 showed a slight growth acceleration. Remembering historical experience of previously completely predictable GDP numbers and the obviously ongoing current weaknesses of Chinese growth, it does not feel quite reliable that China officially still succeeded in meeting the official growth target of about 5 percent – despite some stimulation measures.

One may in this context reflect on the introduction of the official release by the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS), making the development of the Chinese economy mainly to an achievement of the political leadership as the following initial lines demonstrate:      “In 2024, in face of the complicated and severe environment with increasing external pressures and internal difficulties, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated efforts to foster a new pattern of development, and pursued high-quality development in solid steps. As a result, the national economy was generally stable with steady progress and new achievements were made in high-quality development. Particularly, with a package of incremental policies being timely rolled out, the social confidence was effectively bolstered and the economy recovered remarkably. The major targets and tasks of economic and social development were achieved successfully” (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202501/t20250117_1958330.html ).

Without doubt, the political message in this GDP comment can be recognized very easily. There is a lot of political self-praise – but also the realistic comment that the past year has been a very difficult one, both outside and inside China. Additionally, one may wonder how weak the Chinese economy had been performing in reality when – as commented above – the NBS also concludes that the only lately in 2024 implemented growth package meant that “the social confidence was effectively bolstered and the economy recovered remarkably…”.

Of course, Chinese political leaders still – understandably – do not want to publish any growth objective for 2025 when facing that the new U.S. leadership is about to act harshly against China. The announcement of the next growth objective will therefore probably not happen before the National People’s Congress (NPC) which will be opened on March 5, 2025.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University