China Research

Through many years, I have questioned the quality of Chinese official statistics. Sometimes, one can hear or read about statistical improvements. This may be partly the case – but who knows? Doubts are still in place, underlined by the competent research of BOFIT which is linked to the Finnish central bank, Suomen Pankki.

Worrisome domestic and global economic environment

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Beijing, Chinese GDP grew by 5 percent in Q1 of 2026 compared to Q1 last year. This is actually on the upper end of the growth objective of 4.5-5 percent for 2026 as a whole, despite all domestic and international distortions and wars. However, transparency of this development remains limited.

5 percent of economic growth in Q1 has been managed officially despite all the worrisome developments at home and internationally. GDP-growth rates remain unbelievably stable in China. Domestically, China is facing the the ageing population, the imbalanced property sector, major debt problems locally, and uncertain consumers – major challenges alongside all the technological achievements. On the other hand, official statistics also showed that investments and exports performed quite well in the beginning of 2026.

For example, exports grew by 20 percent to ASEAN countries (Q1 in value terms), by 32 percent to Africa and by 9 percent to Latin America. However, exports to the U.S. continued to decrease (-16 percent). 

Anyway, I still wonder for how long time or whether Chinese policy makers can continue to manage their dual economy simultaneously, the lagging and the leading one. An answer still cannot be given. 

The alternative calculation of BOFIT

Finnish research institute BOFIT (The Bank of Finland Research Institute for Emerging Economies, https://www.bofit.fi/en ) in Helsinki is well-known for its research on emerging economies, nowadays particularly on China, Russia and also the Ukraine. BOFIT publishes regularly important statistical indicators on these countries (https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/statistics/) – but also an alternative China forecast on its own which contrary to NBS gave a slight slowdown in Q1 (https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/statistics/alternativeindicatorsofchinaseconomicgrowth/). 

Nota bene: BOFIT’s next forecast on China will be published on May 5.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University