Our Overheating Indicator Falls to 4.9

Postat den 5th June, 2012, 10:37 av Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar

Summary

Our so-called overheating indicator for China (right now rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to 4.9 from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated).
Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey.
GDP forecasts by the China panel (average,%): 2012: 7.3, 2012 q4: 7.4, 2013: 8.3 %.
The short-term outlook for 2012 is more modest than previously predicted – but still not too worrisome.
The new forecast for 2013 is roughly unchanged compared to the last one.
90 % of the panelists predict that the currency renminbi (RMB) in 2012 will be stable or appreciate by just 1-5 percent.
82 % of the panelists think that there is still a dangerous price bubble on the real estate market (Dec 2011: 92 %).
The panel’s grading of confidence in the Chinese economy looks as follows:
(5=very high confidence; 1=very low confidence)
3 years from now: 3.5 5 years from now: 3.0 10 years from now: 2.8
The majority of LNU’s China panelists predicts that it will take up to 5-10 years to recognize a clearly visible shift to a more consumption-oriented growth model. It is not a short-term issue.