China Research

Currently, the UN Climate Change Conference is taking place in Doha. The objective of this conference is to make plans from the Durban meeting one year ago concrete. This means more detailed that a global climate treaty should be set up by 2015 and be implemented by 2020. The whole issue of the deteriorating global environment is getting more urgent each and every year. In fact, there is no time to lose.

However, the situation still seems to be paralyzed after the failing climate summit in Copenhagen three years ago. In the meanwhile, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions continue to increase rapidly. China’s CO₂ emissions are now almost twice as much as those of the U.S. which means an increase by almost 300 percent since 1990 (the U.S. +9 percent during the same period, India and Indonesia +200 percent, Germany and the UK -20 percent). According to most calculations, China stands now for 25 percent of all global CO₂ pollution, mainly related to the rapid industrial expansion and the predominant use of carbon for energy production (75 percent).

Just looking at this very brief statistical summary points at the ongoing environmental conflict between China, other emerging countries and most Western interests (but the U.S. never ratified the Kyoto agreement). Emerging countries are – in line with their term – expanding their economies quickly, and actually more quickly than the rest of the world. Since these countries consider the West / Western countries to have a kind of historical debt for their lagging development, the group of emerging countries – informally led by China and India – does not consider their absolute volumes of pollution as the decisive reduction indicator – but the pollution or GDP per capita.

Regarding historical or emotional dimensions, this kind of approach may look understandable. But relative calculations tend to be misguiding when absolute numbers become really high. This is why China’s role in the long way to better global climate conditions has to be regarded as both decisive and morally important, particularly since China can be supposed to remain a rapidly growing economy also in the foreseeable future – even in the case of temporary growth distortions. In other words: China’s responsibility for the global environment will continue to increase. Thus, calculations based on per-capita measurements will become more and more obsolete. However, Western interests should negotiate with China on fact-oriented levels – and not with arrogant and superior attitudes!

Finally, it should be said that also China itself would benefit from a clearly improved environmental outlook at home. Its people will be happier, more healthy and more productive – which certainly will add to economic growth in the longer run.

Summary: It will be one of the most important strategic decisions of the new Chinese political leadership to give the long-term objective of a substantially improved environment enough priority compared to short-sighted growth considerations.

Hubert Fromlet
Professor of International Economics
Editorial board

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