China Research

A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China – from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.

Advanced countries lose and emerging markets gain export momentum

October 29, 2025

Below, we examine the WTO statistics on the main exporting nations. Many advanced countries had quite bleak performances in 2024 due to weak global demand. Quite a number of emerging markets on the other hand achieved more favorable developments. The magnitude of trade damage caused by President Trump’s protectionism starting in 2025 remains to be seen.

China was still the largest exporting nation in the world after a 6-percent increase in current prices last year, giving the Middle Kingdom a global export share of almost 15 percent. This was partly made possible as a result of further Chinese progress in the emerging world, particularly in Africa and South America. China counts for roughly 7 percent of total global goods exports. For 2025, China is predicted to achieve record shipments in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

India remains lagging behind, Vietnam is catching up

Despite the enormous size of the country, India still has not advanced further than to number 18 of the globe’s leading exporting nations. This is sometimes regarded as disappointing. However, one should remember that India for a long time only had very limited foreign competition at home and for this reason insufficient conditions for exporting to the rest of the world on a broader scale of products. India as a country is still catching up also when it comes to exports and product diversification.

By the way, only a few emerging markets are among the top 20 exporting nations – but they dominate in the third group from number 21 to 30. Particularly in the medium and longer run, they will most probably improve their positions further.

In detail, the list of the 30 leading exporters of goods in 2024 looked as follows (in billion USD, in brackets all changes in percent and in current prices in, source WTO):

1    China 3577 (+6)   

2    U.S. 2065 (+2)

3    Germany 1682 (-1)

4    Netherlands 921 (-2)

5    Japan 707 (-1)

6    South Korea 684 (+8)

7    Italy 674 (0) 

8.   Hong Kong 64z6 (+12)

9     France 639 (+11)

10   Mexico 617 (+4)

11   UAE 604 (+6)

12   Canada 569 (0)

13    Belgium 536 (-6)

14    UK 513 (-2)

15    Singapore 506 (+6)

16    Taiwan 474 (+10)

17    Switzerland 447 (+6)

18    India 443 (+3)

19    Russia 433 (+2)

20    Spain 424 (0)

21    Vietnam 405 (+14)

22    Poland 380 (0)

23    Australia 341 (-8)

24    Brazil 337 (-1)

26    Malaysia 330 (+6)

26    Saudi Arabia 305 (-5)

27    Thailand 301 (+5)

2    Indonesia 265 (+2) 

29   Czech Republik 263 (+3)

30   Turkey 262 (+2)

Source: WTO.org

Asia in the lead regarding suppliers from emerging countries

Interestingly, Asian emerging countries had the most successful export performance in 2024 (but again, without knowing how much they are now affected by Trump’s ongoing protectionism). This position can be expected to remain in place in the foreseeable future. It also should be mentioned that particularly Vietnam benefited more recently from shifting global supply chains.

Surprisingly, Russia remained also in 2024 quite a successful exporting nation due to oil and gas exports to China, India and other countries still dealing substantially with Russia.

Conclusion: Trade statistics from the WTO remain illuminating, especially on the corporate level – for both purchasing, sales and production managers.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University

Publication of article on China by Hubert Fromlet in Economic & Financial Review by the EEFC at the University of London

October 9, 2025

Abstract: This study traces the transformation of China over the years. It examines the country’s high debt position which is in all sectors including central government, local governments, corporates and private households which according to the IMF totals 80 percent of GDP. Local debt conditions continue to deteriorate for different reasons – particularly as a consequence of the ongoing real estate crisis but also due to the weakening economic growth potential. The author also highlights the role of BRICS II as an organisation ready for increasing Chinese influence. The study concludes China’s real estate crisis may be much more serious than usually understood by most Western analysts.

Read the full article here.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University

Trump’s tariffs weaken Asian growth

October 3, 2025

It is not a new analytical conclusion that the absurd tariffs of President Trump also damage emerging markets though with different intensity from country to country. This harming American policy certainly also affects Asian countries which recently has been confirmed by the updated forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The weakening outlook for the Asian member countries of the ADB also means a limited setback for Western corporations in their attempt to diversify their export markets as a reaction on the deteriorating conditions on U.S. markets. However, Asian growth performance will remain superior to the rest of the world.

Negative growth effects from tariffs but partly offset by domestic policy

ADB summarizes its revised forecast from September 2025 as follows: “Developing Asia’s growth forecasts are trimmed to 4.8% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, down by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points from April. The revisions reflect offsetting factors. The updated trade agreements and tariffs led to a broad shift toward higher US tariffs, which will weigh on the region’s exports and growth. However, fiscal and monetary policy responses are expected to cushion the impact…” (see https://www.adb.org/outlook/editions/september-2025).

It also should be observed that China still has not achieved a deal with the Trump administration. This means a major shortcoming or uncertainty in the ADB forecast -despite the fact that many Asian countries indeed have a trade agreement with the U.S. since August 1. But who knows which trade deal can be regarded as stable?

As far as China is concerned, the ADB explains that GDP forecasts for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have been kept unchanged due to domestic growth support. At the same time, the ADB still mentions concerns about China’s “continued weakness in the property market”. My own interpretation of the ADB view on the PRC means continuing concerns, reflected by the decelerating GDP-growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 (4.7 and 4.3 percent).

India has to accept some downward revision of its growth as well but remains the fastest (major) economy in Asia (expected GDP growth: 6.5 percent in both 2025 and 2026).

Unfortunately, South East Asia will have to face the most negative growth impact in 2026 from Trump’s trade restrictions. Indonesia (GDP +5.0 in the September forecast for 2026, down from +5.1 percent in April)is still considered to remain on track – but countries such as the Philippines (to +5.7 from +6.1 percent), Thailand (to +1.6 from +2.9 percent), Vietnam (to +6.0 from +6.5 percent) and Malaysia (to +4.2 from 4.8 percent) lose quite some momentum – mainly due to American tariffs.

Conclusion: American protectionism certainly affects Asia negatively as a whole – but certain countries more than others. However, altogether Asia will most probably remain the fastest growing region or continent also in the future – as a message to the corporate sector, at least as long as China can avoid a (financial) meltdown.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University