“Satisfactory survey numbers from China”

January 8th, 2018 by Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar

LNU’s China Panel No 24 re-visited – January 8, 2018

In the beginning of December, Linnaeus University prepared its traditional fall/winter survey on the business climate and economic conditions in China, both with shorter and longer time perspectives. The (independent) responding China experts – around 15 of them – come from Asia, the U.S. and Europe – thanks a lot!

Unfortunately, the publication of the survey took place on December 22/23 when seasonal holidays already had started for many readers. For this this reason, we re-publish the results of the survey, provided with some additional comments. We see no reason why any result from the December Panel should be obsolete already today.

Summary: LNU’s China Panel remains cautiously optimistic on China – despite the risks”

¤ LNU’s “Temperature Indicator” for GDP growth remained stable at 6.1 in December 2017 compared to 6.4 in May 2017 – still satisfactory despite the small decrease (10 means “very hot” on the scale).

¤ The panel expects Chinese GDP growth to come in at 6.2 percent in 2018 as a whole and at – somewhat slower – 6 percent in q4 2018. But also this latter number would still be acceptable inside and outside China.

¤ The forecasts of the panel have rather a downward bias than an upward bias.

¤ There are very divided views on the course of the currency RMB in 2018.

¤ GDP growth is seen at 5.6 percent on average until 2022 (five years from now).

Click to zoom the image.

Download the full article here, chinapanelno24-re jan 2018.

 

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

 

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