The world is changing and has always been. The same can be said about emerging markets and the analysis of their market reforms which were particularly visible in many former planned European economies. At the same time, herd behaviour is not easy to foresee under global conditions where psychology will play an increasingly important role also for the economic development.
2014 onwards, the analysis of emerging markets got a new dimension. Covid 19 meant a new puzzling analytical conundrum during a few years. Now, it seems to be a safe forecast that politics will remain very important for the future analysis of emerging markets – probably increasingly important in a longer perspective. In this context, the analysis of China’s and Russia’s ambitions in the emerging world could become particularly interesting (without discussing India’s strong potential in this specific paper). The activities of the U.S. in emerging countries certainly not to forget! The future positioning of the EU in emerging countries seems to be more uncertain.
Altogether, geopolitical ambitions of the three global superpower countries will most probably gain further momentum in the analysis of emerging markets.
*The Online access to the full paper is through Elsevier or EBSCO which may be possible by library agreements of certain universities.
Hubert Fromlet Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Through many years, I have questioned the quality of Chinese official statistics. Sometimes, one can hear or read about statistical improvements. This may be partly the case – but who knows? Doubts are still in place, underlined by the competent research of BOFIT which is linked to the Finnish central bank, Suomen Pankki.
Worrisome domestic and global economic environment
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Beijing, Chinese GDP grew by 5 percent in Q1 of 2026 compared to Q1 last year. This is actually on the upper end of the growth objective of 4.5-5 percent for 2026 as a whole, despite all domestic and international distortions and wars. However, transparency of this development remains limited.
5 percent of economic growth in Q1 has been managed officially despite all the worrisome developments at home and internationally. GDP-growth rates remain unbelievably stable in China. Domestically, China is facing the the ageing population, the imbalanced property sector, major debt problems locally, and uncertain consumers – major challenges alongside all the technological achievements. On the other hand, official statistics also showed that investments and exports performed quite well in the beginning of 2026.
For example, exports grew by 20 percent to ASEAN countries (Q1 in value terms), by 32 percent to Africa and by 9 percent to Latin America. However, exports to the U.S. continued to decrease (-16 percent).
Anyway, I still wonder for how long time or whether Chinese policy makers can continue to manage their dual economy simultaneously, the lagging and the leading one. An answer still cannot be given.
Many international analysts seem to be surprised by the economic rise of Poland during the past 35 years. But they should not. Poland’s positive way forward was clearly visible during all these years. Sure, there were years when less promising steps were made – to the right or to the left – and when the speed of reforms was lowered. However, Poland never left the road of economic reforms. This fact explains very well its rise to the 20th largest economy in the world, passing by even Switzerland.
Very weak starting point in 1990 – but clear strategy to move forward
The planned economy in Poland fell during my time as a chief economist at a major Swedish bank. Contrary to many colleagues, I became very curious about the economic potential of the emerging democracies in Central and Eastern Europe despite their weak starting position, particularly when it came to Poland and the Baltic states. In the early 1990s, my written pieces on the enormous potential of Poland were not yet published digitally but I found an internet source in Swedish from 2007 (https://www.varldenidag.se/nyheter/sverige-ar-fortfarande-i-en-tillvaxtekonomi/35348)
Anyway, the very beginning of Poland’s transformation into a market economy and other competitive structures were not easy to accomplish because of all the economic and institutional shortcomings from the planned economy. However, I always got the impression during my frequent visits to Warsaw and the meetings with Polish ministers, central bank governors and colleagues there that Poland persued a clear strategy of steadily moving forward and becoming more competitive in the increasingly globalizing economy. The strong ambition of steadily improving institutional standards played obviously a decisive role in Poland’s successful catching-up process.
Striking major achievements
In 1990, the Polish GDP per capita amounted to modest USD 6 700 or 38 percent of EU average and 35 years later to more than 55 000 or 85 percent of EU average. According to the IMF, Poland reached in 2025 the number 20 position when calculating total GDP. This is indeed a remarkable achievement and has been widely appreciated in global media.
A decisive contribution to this amazing development came without doubt from Poland’s preparations for its EU entry in 2004 and for the continuous institutional commitments after having managed EU membership. Major investments in higher education and modern technology – and, thus a competent labor force – explain as well why Poland could perform so positively in the past few decades. Considerable investment funding by the EU was certain also responsible for Poland’s positive development during the past 20 years.
It can be summarized that Poland achieved an annual GDP-growth rate of almost 4 percent in the past 20 years, clearly above EU average. In 2025, Polish GDP growth was 3.6 percent for the year as a whole and 4 percent for Q4.
Conclusion: The Polish example manifests clearly the decisive role of lasting institutional improvements for the catching-up development of an emerging market. Today, Poland can be described as an emerged country with nowadays good OECD standards, competitiveness and growth potential.
But also Poland must work on continuous stabilization and improvements of its political and economic conditions. Or as Nobel Price winner Paul Samuelson once told me that “globalization does not give time for comfortable ineffectiveness”.
Hubert Fromlet Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
