China Research

A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China – from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.

Trump does not understand China

November 4, 2025

Many analysts seemed to be relieved after the recent APEC summit in Korea. The meeting between the American and Chinese presidents, Trump and Xi Jinping turned out to be polite with some concrete results – at least on the surface. President Trump gave his meeting with Xi the grading “fantastic” and the score ”12 out of 10”. This strong statement certainly does not point at a good American understanding of Chinese culture, politics and strategies.

Different time horizons – short-term versus long term

I have described many times before in different articles that President Trump and China’s leadership – personified by President Xi Jinping – often use to apply different time horizons in their policy measures or strategies. Trump usually acts short-term oriented and may be open for sudden policy changes whereas Chinese decision makers can be both short-term and long-term oriented simultaneously, even the same person or institution. Obviously, Donald Trump does not look very familiar with this distinct Chinese attitude. 

Trump’s tariffs against the rest of the world favor without doubt China’s long-term ambitions to dominate the global trade system at some point. When Xi in Korea pleaded for the protection of multilateral trade, he certainly mainly had in mind China’s strategically strived future pole position in international trade influence (see also my previous comments on this topic in some of my blogs: https://blogg.lnu.se/china-research/?p=3702, https://blogg.lnu.se/china-research/?p=3693; https://blogg.lnu.se/china-research/?paged=17).

The strategic trade message to the rest of the world: China first instead of America first! It can be recognized that President Trump does not (want to?) understand that his tariffs are the best instrument to support China’s long-term objective to become the leading power in global trade policy, preferably via the WTO. Long-term trade objectives are   considered to be more important than short-term frictions with the U.S.!

China applies also short-term trade policy

We can conclude by now that China’s current political leadership has learned to live with Trump’s erratic trade policy – from month to month or even from year to year. In the nearer future, China knows about the power of its rare earths in forthcoming trade negotiations with the U.S. Trump’s recent sensitive deal with China to secure U.S. production of high-tech products may receive again a new pattern or content one year from now at the latest – originated by China or the U.S. Who knows? Unfortunately, uncertainty will remain in place for the EU as well. And in the background, the risk of a bursting AI bubble still exists.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University

Advanced countries lose and emerging markets gain export momentum

October 29, 2025

Below, we examine the WTO statistics on the main exporting nations. Many advanced countries had quite bleak performances in 2024 due to weak global demand. Quite a number of emerging markets on the other hand achieved more favorable developments. The magnitude of trade damage caused by President Trump’s protectionism starting in 2025 remains to be seen.

China was still the largest exporting nation in the world after a 6-percent increase in current prices last year, giving the Middle Kingdom a global export share of almost 15 percent. This was partly made possible as a result of further Chinese progress in the emerging world, particularly in Africa and South America. China counts for roughly 7 percent of total global goods exports. For 2025, China is predicted to achieve record shipments in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

India remains lagging behind, Vietnam is catching up

Despite the enormous size of the country, India still has not advanced further than to number 18 of the globe’s leading exporting nations. This is sometimes regarded as disappointing. However, one should remember that India for a long time only had very limited foreign competition at home and for this reason insufficient conditions for exporting to the rest of the world on a broader scale of products. India as a country is still catching up also when it comes to exports and product diversification.

By the way, only a few emerging markets are among the top 20 exporting nations – but they dominate in the third group from number 21 to 30. Particularly in the medium and longer run, they will most probably improve their positions further.

In detail, the list of the 30 leading exporters of goods in 2024 looked as follows (in billion USD, in brackets all changes in percent and in current prices in, source WTO):

1    China 3577 (+6)   

2    U.S. 2065 (+2)

3    Germany 1682 (-1)

4    Netherlands 921 (-2)

5    Japan 707 (-1)

6    South Korea 684 (+8)

7    Italy 674 (0) 

8.   Hong Kong 64z6 (+12)

9     France 639 (+11)

10   Mexico 617 (+4)

11   UAE 604 (+6)

12   Canada 569 (0)

13    Belgium 536 (-6)

14    UK 513 (-2)

15    Singapore 506 (+6)

16    Taiwan 474 (+10)

17    Switzerland 447 (+6)

18    India 443 (+3)

19    Russia 433 (+2)

20    Spain 424 (0)

21    Vietnam 405 (+14)

22    Poland 380 (0)

23    Australia 341 (-8)

24    Brazil 337 (-1)

26    Malaysia 330 (+6)

26    Saudi Arabia 305 (-5)

27    Thailand 301 (+5)

2    Indonesia 265 (+2) 

29   Czech Republik 263 (+3)

30   Turkey 262 (+2)

Source: WTO.org

Asia in the lead regarding suppliers from emerging countries

Interestingly, Asian emerging countries had the most successful export performance in 2024 (but again, without knowing how much they are now affected by Trump’s ongoing protectionism). This position can be expected to remain in place in the foreseeable future. It also should be mentioned that particularly Vietnam benefited more recently from shifting global supply chains.

Surprisingly, Russia remained also in 2024 quite a successful exporting nation due to oil and gas exports to China, India and other countries still dealing substantially with Russia.

Conclusion: Trade statistics from the WTO remain illuminating, especially on the corporate level – for both purchasing, sales and production managers.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University

Publication of article on China by Hubert Fromlet in Economic & Financial Review by the EEFC at the University of London

October 9, 2025

Abstract: This study traces the transformation of China over the years. It examines the country’s high debt position which is in all sectors including central government, local governments, corporates and private households which according to the IMF totals 80 percent of GDP. Local debt conditions continue to deteriorate for different reasons – particularly as a consequence of the ongoing real estate crisis but also due to the weakening economic growth potential. The author also highlights the role of BRICS II as an organisation ready for increasing Chinese influence. The study concludes China’s real estate crisis may be much more serious than usually understood by most Western analysts.

Read the full article here.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University