A good example from statistical reality in China
Postat den 7th September, 2015, 10:05 av Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar
This morning, one could read in Chinese and international press that the statistical office of China (National Bureau of Statistics, NBS) made a slight downward revision of GDP growth for 2014 – from 7.4 to 7.3 percent. This is exactly the phenomenon my colleague Doris Fischer and I describe in our recent paper “China’s strive for quality and growth data” (SNEE, see also my latest blogs in chinaresearch.se from August/September and in http://blogg.lnu.se/fromlet-bbsresearch/blog/blogg/kina-kortsiktiga-utmaningar-i-konflikt-med-langsiktiga-mal/).
The point is that revisions in Chinese statistics – if they exist – still are tiny and, thus, not really trustworthy. Very small revisions of this kind do not exist over time in our part of the world. Why should they reflect reality in China?
A similar example can be picked from official Chinese forecasts for GDP. In most cases they become more or less exactly verified later on by official statistics. For 2015, the official forecast for GDP growth in China is at 7.0 percent. Consequently, we should not be surprised about the fact that Chinese GDP growth for the first half of 2015 came in exactly at 7.0 percent. It can be added that Chinese officials also announced these days that GDP growth is on track. Following tradition, this implies that the outcome of GDP growth in China will be very close to 7 percent.
What does all this mean? An important conclusion should be that we do not know how much GDP growth currently is in reality. 7, 6, 5 percent – or something else?
Trust in Chinese GDP numbers will be first growing when Chinese leaders allow for more deviation from expectations and official forecasts. To get there, won’t be easy for psychological reasons. The big question is: from which stage become official numbers really trustworthy? Apart from this, we still get confronted with lagging transparency.
But we know from research and experience: gaining trust takes time. Why not start such a process already now?
Hubert Fromlet
Senior Professor of International Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board
Det här inlägget postades den September 7th, 2015, 10:05 och fylls under China