Re-visited: China’s (new) GDP calculations
Postat den 10th September, 2015, 08:32 av Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar
This week, China announced a change that I have been pleading for many times in the past few years. Finally, Chinese authorities have announced that they will abandon the cumulative GDP accounting (for q3: q1-q3 total minus q1-q2 total). Instead, q3 will be calculated and published separately. This will happen for the first time on October 19. In theory, it is a step in the right direction.
The Chinese tell us now that GDP calculations will be more precise. Hopefully! One indication will be if the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will be allowed to go for more visible growth fluctuations. This hasn’t been the case so far. Another positive signal would be the publication of quarterly results for the GDP aggregates such as private and public consumption, investments, net exports, inventories, etc.
So far, trust in GDP statistics has been low. The above-mentioned reform of GDP calculations does not automatically increase trust and transparency. Gaining trust takes time and needs continuous efforts, as I wrote in my last blog. It will take time to find out whether the accuracy of China’s GDP calculations will be improving by this methodical change, as promised by the NBS.
Despite all uncertainty, it is absolutely certain that China must improve its statistical standards and its transparency if it really wants to become a positive player on global financial markets and an appreciated partner country to invest in.
Hubert Fromlet
Senior Professor of International Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board
Det här inlägget postades den September 10th, 2015, 08:32 och fylls under China