China Research

A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China – from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.

India – Modi wants to win the election and act as the voice of the South

March 26, 2024

One month from now – on April 19 – general elections will start in India and include altogether seven stages until June 1. Almost one billion people are invited to vote – 150 million people more than last time.

Opinion polls point at a new victory for current Prime Minister Narendra Mori and his Hindi right wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) together with BJPs coalition partners (see my article from February 22 this year with the title “India isn’t easy to analyze and to deal with”, including comments on the economic development and challenges, https://blogg.lnu.se/china-research/?p=3501). Most observers expect the oppositional alliance called INDIA to weaken the position of the BJP – but not strongly enough to win.

Strengthening India’s voice of the South

There is no doubt that Modi during his assumed third mandate period aims at further strengthening India’s role as voice of the South, certainly in competition with China. Both countries appear to be quite different in their political approach vis-à-vis the southern world.

India seems to see the South in a collective view with visions of necessary common achievements in important areas such as less poverty, better health and environment but also non-violence in Gandhi’s historical spirit.

More exactly, the Indian government made the following comment in this context: ”India hosted a special virtual Summit, called the Voice of Global South Summit under the theme – ‘Unity of voice, Unity of purpose’ from January 12-13, 2023. It was a new and unique initiative that envisaged bringing together countries of the Global South and share their perspectives and priorities on a common platform across a whole range of issues…”.

India obviously strives to integrate the global South more visibly with the Western hemisphere – in line with its philosophy to see the whole world as one family (Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam).

China’s strategies on the other hand tend to base quite openly on commercial objectives, for example by producing and financing new infrastructure projects and by receiving in return access to important commodities or Taiwan issues. However, China also uses, for example, BRICS and the trade agreement RCEP as platforms for meeting the South multilaterally.

It may be interesting to see how India and China will compete in the South in the longer run. It seems to be on the cards that this competition will become fiercer.

Hubert Fromlet Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

Science and female equality – reflections on the International Womens’s Day

March 6, 2024

The International Women’s Day (IWD) on March 8 has become a global phenomenon – widely acknowledged and celebrated. Theoretically, there is a broad understanding in most countries regarding the importance of female equality both politically, institutionally, economically, socially and psychologically. Practically, much more could be done for female equality – and should be done! Both in advanced and emerging countries.

Science has a lot to tell

In my view, science can give different explanations for the benefits of improving female equality. The following five conclusions from scientific research could be mentioned in the first place – most of them having an impact on economic growth and well-being (which is not the same):

¤  The impact of improved institutions on economic growth.
Research has shown for quite a number of years that improved institutions mean a lot to the quality and sustainability of economic growth. Nobel Prize winners such as R. Coase, D. North, E. Ostrom and O. Williamson are particularly famous in this respect. More lately, D. Acemoglu / J.Robinson, D. Rodrik and T. Persson have done extended work on the importance of institutions. Looking more closely on institutional research reveals clearly that better institutional conditions also mean improved conditions for economic growth – but also that extended female participation in these processes logically works as a driver of such desirable economic developments. Examples for progress may be better institutional conditions for female education, health, wages, and child care. 

¤  The impact of female human capital formation on economic growth.
Research has shown for quite some time (R. Lucas, R. Barro, P. Romer, G. Mankiw, etc.) that improvements of human capital formation (education) also outside the pure institutional sphere can contribute substantially to better economic growth. Consequently, when further focus on female capital formation happens, we have a widened source of economic growth.

¤  The impact of enlarged female labor supply. 
A substantial number of countries in the world have already – or will have – increasing demographic problems in the forthcoming decades (China, Japan, Russia, Germany, the Baltic countries, and a number of other European countries, see https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2023-01/the_impact_of_demographic_change_in_a_changing_environment_2023.PDF).

 A major contribution to a future solution of the enormous burden of labor force shortage can most certainly emerge from an increasing female labor participation, both in volume and in quality terms. Such a development can also contribute to better international competitiveness.

¤  The impact of psychological satisfaction on productivity. 
Psychology often plays a neglected role in economic analysis, even, for example, in productivity studies for scientific work (J. Astegiano). Particularly important is the potential role of improved female labor productivity and what it means to economic growth (OECD, see https://www.oecd.org/chile/economic-empowerment-women-productive-inclusive-societies.htm).

¤  The impact of better economic conditions on the society. 
Since an extended and broadened female labor market participation leads to better medium- and long-term GDP growth, chances of a stable society with good ethics should increase as well (B. Friedman). 

Conclusion – science shows the importance of women in the economy
Putting together the brief reflections above should demonstrate that there is sufficient scientific analysis that underlines the positive impact on economic developments by increasing  and improving gender well-being and improved female participation on labor markets. These processes should be considered as win-win developments – on both macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. This conclusion can be applied to both more advanced and emerging countries.

Hubert Fromlet Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board

China – what will the NPC announce?

March 4, 2024

On March 5, the 14th National Party Congress (NPC) will officially open its second convention. This time, the NPC deserves particular attention.

Main focus for analysts – the officially strived GDP growth              

This year’s NPC procedures will be the same as every year.  Almost 3000 representatives from all over the country participate in this annual “parliamentary” convention of the Communist Party in Beijing – a convention  with a normal acceptance rate for all suggestions and laws of 100 percent (see also my remarks from last year, edited on March 6, 2023, https://blogg.lnu.se/china-research/?paged=6; many of the comments then should be still valid, particularly those that pointed at the economic imbalances).

One year ago, I wrote that “the officially proclaimed official GDP-growth objective of around 5 percent in 2023 surpasses the outcome of 2022 by as much as 2 percentage points. 5 percent may not be quite easy to achieve but is definitely not out of reach because of all the (possible) statistical GDP effects from the low base in 2022 and a more expansionary economic policy this year”.

This interpretation has come true. Officially, last year’s GDP came in with a growth rate of 5.2 percent. It could have been lower in reality. Economic policy has become more expansionary, also in the past few weeks. Chinese political leadership still seems to be concerned about the economic performance.

There should be every reason for political growth concerns even if we do not know enough about China’s current economic situation. But we seem to understand that China these days is at the edge of deflation. The property crisis is still there – affecting also local public debt.

Real estate is no longer driving the economy. This explains partly the ongoing reluctance of consumers – but also the disappointing performance of Chinese stocks. Purchasing Manager Index for manufacturing stayed in February again below 50 (but may have been slightly affected by the new year vacation).

The important role of confidence

Lack of confidence in the economy can currently be observed both inside and outside China. For this reason, Prime Minister Li Qiang will put a lot of emphasis on restoring confidence and go for another 5-percent growth target in 2024 (which in reality should be more difficult to meet than one year ago).

Consequently, short-term stimuli will receive more political attention than structural economic policy. However, such a short-term focus will not work without further expansionary policy steps in fiscal expenditure and credit policy. This could mean further uncertainty about official and implicit public debt – a conundrum that has been existing for many years (see Fromlet https://publications.bof.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/44981/172270.pdf;jsessionid=C0C89C49F078C34335DF6EBFA637B523?sequence=19).

Hubert Fromlet Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
Editorial board